Fears vacant restaurant TikTok pattern could last

“I’ve worked in hospitality since I was 15, and this is probably the quietest January I’ve worked,” says 23-year-ancient Willow Gwyn-Williams, a pub manager in Chelmsford.

She thinks the expense of living crisis is to blame for bookings being down where she works at the William Boosey in Hatfield Peverel.

“People just don’t have the money to leave out and do anything,” she says.

Videos of eerily vacant bars and restaurants are trending on TikTok, with staff posting videos under the hashtag January in Hospitality.

Some posts have tens of thousands of likes, showing staff finding creative ways to remain busy, including perfecting latte art or making pint glasses sparkling tidy.

Willow says the quieter period means fewer shifts, particularly for part-period employees “as we simply do not have the numbers to justify having extra people arrive into work.”

“The mood in January is a bit miserable,” she says.

While a January lull in trade is normal, there are fears that restaurants and bars may continue to be quieter than usual all year.

The sector is warning that the rise in employer National Insurance contributions and minimum wage, announced in the apportionment and due to commence in April, will cruel it remains tough beyond January.

Kate Nicholls, the chief executive of trade body UK Hospitality, says the government needs “an urgent rethink” of the changes – or the community will face worth increases of around 6-8%.

She says 80% of businesses in the sector are expected to cut staffing levels and some may be forced to close.

Louise Maclean is chief executive of Signature throng which owns over 20 bars, restaurants and night clubs across Scotland, employing around 700 staff.

“Everywhere is having to rein it back in,” she told the BBC’s Today programme. “We are so worried about what’s happening on 1 April.

“We have to pass on the worth rises to the buyer and ensure sales don’t drop… it is a large, large gamble. But that’s what we are looking at.

“The whole circumstance in 2025 is a concern and the phrase we are using is ‘survive ’25’.”

Sonia Johnson owns Mamars bakery in Warrington and says the rise in minimum wage will make her biggest expense, staffing, “quite high”.

On top of that she says her suppliers have indicated they will be putting up their prices in the coming months.

She says luxury items, like her artisanal cheese, didn’t sell as well over Christmas as people tightened their purses, and she will have to put up prices to cover her costs.

Mohammed Sarnwal, opened The Farmhouse restaurant in Coventry in 2008 and focuses on locally-sourced, farm-to-table ingredients.

He says the upcoming expense increases will “undoubtedly put pressure on margins” and that his menu prices may rise “in order for us to survive”.

“To be truthful: we’re nervous,” he says. “It’s quite worrying. I’ve never seen a circumstance like this in my 18 years of the hospitality industry.”

He says the government was “doing itself no favours – if they desire to ruin the hospitality industry they’re going the correct way about it”.

A government spokesperson said it was “standing behind” hospitality by cutting 1p off alcohol responsibility on draught pints from February, and was giving some restaurants, pubs and bars 40% relief from business rates from April.

It added that smaller businesses will either view a cut or no transformation in their NIC [National Insurance Contributions] from April by “more than doubling Employment Allowance” which reduces how much a tiny business has to pay on NIC for its staff.

Along with the vacant tables, chalk signs and propose emails offering deep discounts is another sign of how desperate venues are to get people through the doors.

The number of discounts increased by 25% in 2024 and the discounts were steeper, says Maria Vanifatova from food service industry insights firm Meaningful imagination.

This year some food delivery services are even offering up to 35% off, she says.

Despite this, consumers are planning to spend less on hospitality in the first three months of 2025 than they were last year, according to a Deloitte survey of 3,000 people shared exclusively with the BBC.

Celine Fenech, buyer insights navigator at Deloitte, added that any recovery in 2025 would depend on the expense of essentials, like food and vigor, going down.

However, she adds: “Beyond that, we should commence to view more consumers spending on non-essentials like socialising and going out to pubs and restaurants,” saying higher minimum wages should provide people more spending power.