What Trump’s reelection means for union workers, according to experts

In recent years, the labor movement received a makeover. A surge in organizing and a swell of popularity coincided with the tenure of President Joe Biden, who some labor leaders have praised as the most pro-union president in the country’s history.

The impending arrival of President-elect Donald Trump has thrust some of those gains into question, experts told ABC information.

Trump’s first term featured a weakening of labor regulations and the appointment of pro-management officials in key positions, experts said, voicing expectations of a similar way when Trump returns to office.

Such changes would likely make it more challenging for workers to form unions and discuss workplace improvements, but the labor movement may withstand those headwinds since many of the factors that have driven its growth remain in place, experts said.

“It’s going to be a dramatic transformation,” Paul Clark, professor of labor and employment relations at Pennsylvania State University, told ABC information. “But I don’t ponder you’ll view that momentum reverse overnight. In the long run, it’s harder to declare.”

The Trump shift throng did not immediately respond to ABC information’ request for comment.

Soon after he takes office in January, Trump is expected to replace National Labor Relations Board General Counsel Jennifer Abruzzo, who has enforced federal policy in a manner widely viewed as pro-union.

The shift would mirror a similar action taken by Biden, who fired then-NLRB General Counsel Peter Robb on Biden’s first day in office. Trump may also opt to remove Democratic members of the NLRB’s five-person board, though such a shift could face a stiff legal test, experts said.

In one of its most notable rulings during the Biden presidency, the NLRB decided last year that the agency could order companies to grant approval of a union if they had been found to illegally obstruct worker organizing.

The selection discouraged companies from union-busting, helping to make up for what many in the labor movement view as insufficient monetary penalties for firms found to have illegally cracked down on organizing, Wilma Liebman, former chair of the NLRB under President Barack Obama, told ABC information.

The Trump administration, however, will likely reverse the shift, Liebman added.

“I’d declare it was one of the most significant, if not the most significant, selection of the Biden era,” Liebman said. “I’d imagine that it will be short-lived.”

The Trump administration may also resist changes sought by Democrats that would make recent avenues for union growth, experts said. Some Democrats have tried to make it easier for gig workers to classify as formal employees, paving the way for potential organizing campaigns at the likes of Uber or Lyft.

Meanwhile, the NLRB issued a rule last year making it easier for workers at contractors or franchises to be considered employees of a parent business, allowing unions to potentially organize far-flung quick food employees or e-commerce delivery drivers as a unified throng.

The rule was struck down in federal court in March, but the NLRB had been expected to revive the attempt, experts said. The agency is unlikely to shift forward with such a assess under Trump.

“It’s usually the left is expanding union rights and expanding the reach of law, and the correct is contracting it,” said David Sherwyn, a professor of hospitality and human resources at Cornell University who previously worked as a management-side employment lawyer.

“Union law is notorious for flipping back and forth,” he added. “That is to be expected.”

Still, questions remain about the exact posture toward unions that will be taken up by the Trump administration. The Trump campaign courted union workers and welcomed a talk from Teamsters President Sean O’Brien at the Republican National Convention. Vice President-elect JD Vance has expressed views critical of large corporations and sympathetic toward workers.

“It’s out there as a question mark,” Liebman said.

A worker-amiable way would mark a major departure from Trump’s first term. Trump appointed management-amiable lawyer Eugene Scalia as secretary of labor. For the National Labor Relations Board, a government agency that enforces rules protecting union organizing, Trump chose Robb, another lawyer who spent his career representing employers.

Speaking with billionaire commence-up founder Elon Musk in August, Trump praised Musk for what he described as a willingness to fire employees who leave out on strike. Federal labor law prohibits the termination of workers for engaging in a collective labor action, such as a strike.

“They leave on strike. I won’t mention the name of the business but they leave on strike and you declare, ‘That’s OK. You’re all gone. You’re all gone. Every one of you is gone.’ You are the greatest,” Trump told Musk in an interview broadcast on X.

Even if the federal government shifts toward a pro-management posture, the labor movement will likely sustain some of the strength it has built in recent years, experts said. Seventy percent of American adults approve of unions, hovering near an all-period high last reached in 1965, according to a Gallup poll released in August.

Nearly 460,000 workers were involved in significant workplace strikes in 2023, which marked a 280% boost from the prior year, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed.

“It’s harder to receive a hammer to the labor movement,” Sherwym said. “Labor is not seen as the issue like it was at one point.”

“Trump has to thread the needle,” Sherwyn added, saying the administration would likely shift the federal government toward the side of management, while limiting the damage for unions. “Blowing up the structure would be an utter mess, and I don’t view Trump doing that.”