President-elect Donald Trump is set to retake office in a little over a month after winning the election over Vice President Kamala Harris in November. Trump’s campaign made many promises, but one particularly fascinating commitment to retirees was his pledge to eliminate Social safety advantage taxes.

To be obvious, these aren’t the same as the Social safety payroll taxes that workers pay, which serve as the program’s main source of capital. This is an additional responsibility that retirees pay if their incomes exceed sure thresholds.

On the surface, Trump’s schedule sounds like an unqualified positive for retirees, many of whom are struggling with a lack of reserves and Social safety’s declining buying power. But there’s a hidden drawback to this schedule that could hurt seniors far more than it helps them over the long run.

What are Social safety advantage taxes?

Social safety advantage taxes didn’t always exist. They only took result in 1984, with the government adding a second tier of advantage taxation 10 years later. Since then, the rules for advantage taxation have remained constant.

Retirees may owe taxes on a portion of their benefits based on their provisional income – their adjusted gross income (AGI) plus any nontaxable earnings they’ve earned during the year and half of their annual Social safety advantage. The table below outlines how much of their annual advantage they could owe taxes on based on their provisional income and marital position:

Source: Social safety Administration.

To be obvious, this doesn’t cruel you’ll misplace up to 85% of your benefits to the government. It just means the government could responsibility up to 85% of your benefits at your ordinary income responsibility rate.

Still, this is a large issue for seniors, especially since the thresholds for advantage taxation haven’t changed in three decades. With average benefits rising over period, more retirees discover themselves encountering these taxes every year.

It’s understandable why many would desire to eliminate this responsibility. It would provide seniors additional money to spend, which could assist make up for the truth that Social safety has lost 20% of its buying power since 2010. However, it wouldn’t be long before this shift could backfire in a large way.

What’s the issue with eliminating income responsibility on Social safety benefits?

Eliminating the Social safety advantage responsibility would receive away one of only three sources of capital for the program, the others being the Social safety payroll taxes that workers pay and the earnings that the program’s depend funds earn.

Social safety could compensate for this for a little while by withdrawing more money from the depend funds to make up for what the payroll taxes aren’t covering. But this won’t be feasible for long. As it is, even with Social safety advantage taxes in place, the program can only continue to pay out packed benefits until about 2035. This is when its depend pool reserves are expected to be depleted. Retirees would face a 23% advantage cut unless the government takes steps to boost the program’s capital before then.

Eliminating the Social safety advantage responsibility would only accelerate this deadline. A 23% advantage cut would likely hurt these seniors worse than paying advantage taxes on a portion of what they receive each year.

The silver lining

Though Trump pledged to eliminate these income taxes on benefits, it’s not solely within his power as president to do so. Congress would have to pass a law eliminating this responsibility, and even with Republicans controlling the House and Senate, it could still be challenging to pull this off.

At a minimum, we can declare it’s not going to happen immediately in 2025. Whether it happens in the upcoming remains to be seen. If it does at all, it would likely arrive as a outcome of broader Social safety reforms designed to keep the program sustainable for generations to arrive.

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