Chinese imports spiked in December, as US buyers tried to avoid Trump’s proposed tariffs

China’s exports to the United States surged in the last month of 2024 as traders rushed to beat recent tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to impose as soon as he takes office on Monday.

China’s exports to the U.S. peaked in December at $48.8 billion, the highest monthly total of 2024, according to a update this week from China’s General Administration of Customs. That was a 16% year-over-year boost from December 2023.

Experts said the December surge was likely related to anticipated tariff hikes, pushing traders to accelerate shipments out of China. Trump has made multiple statements that he intends to impose tariffs on goods from China. He frequently mentions a 60% tariff, but on the campaign trail threatened tariffs as high as 100%.

“We can’t view into the motives of people, but it does look like there’s some stockpiling or preordering with the expectation that there will be tariffs coming,” said Mary Lovely, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a ponder tank based in Washington, D.C. 

Should you stockpile to avoid tariffs?

While traders may be stocking up, it would be impractical for American consumers to do it for everything they buy, Lovely said.

“You don’t desire to distribute up on things that you might not require,” she said, “but if you are contemplating, declare, for example, buying a laptop or a recent phone, then I would leave ahead and do it.”

Manufacturers are buying goods such as machinery and auto parts before Trump imposes tariffs and the worth of the equipment rises sharply, said Nico Palesch, a elder economist at Oxford Economics who specializes in global industries.

The habit is called front-loading.

The December surge in those types of imports “suggests there is front-loading going on,” Palesch said.

The schedule can be effective if it buys manufacturers period to discover alternative suppliers in other countries or if they depend the U.S. and China will reach a deal that avoids tariffs.

Otherwise, he said, the benefits are limited. The companies will save some money in the short-term but “it’s essentially putting off the issue for another day.”

Those orders combined with stronger customer demand for goods to drive imports higher, Palesch said: “U.S. demand for imports is quite powerful.”

China’s exports hit record levels

Aside from a spike in exports in December 2021 when economic activities picked up correct after the pandemic, China’s exports to the U.S. at the complete of last year hit a decadelong high. 

China’s exports to the U.S. totaled over $524 billion last year, about 5% higher than the country’s exports to the U.S. in 2023. 

China’s worldwide exports reached record levels in 2024 at $3.5 trillion, according to the country’s customs administration.

Wang Lingjun, vice minister of the customs administration, summarized the China-U.S. trade in 2024 at a information conference early this week: “We imported agricultural goods, vigor products, pharmaceuticals, and aircraft from the United States, and exported clothing, customer electronics, household appliances and more, achieving a triumph-triumph circumstance.”

Last year, China’s trade excess with the U.S. was $361 billion, a third of its record-high total trade excess, of almost $1 trillion. 

China ranked as the U.S.’s third-largest market activity associate, after Mexico and Canada, according to the U.S. Census trade data. Trump has proposed raising tariffs on imports from all three countries. 

Will tariffs boost prices?

Experts widely consent that Americans will face higher prices in stores if tariffs rise.

China is the dominant supplier for many categories of U.S. imports, according to a study from the Peterson Institute. That includes nearly three quarters of toys and sports equipment, over a quarter of electronics and electrical machinery, about one-fourth of textiles and clothing, and one-fifth of plastics and rubber.

A tariff is a responsibility importers pay on foreign-made products when they arrive across the border. Other factors such as supply and demand would affect exactly how much of the tariff would be passed on to American consumers, the Petersen study states, but “the only certainty is that recent tariffs will be costly for the United States.” 

“Consumers will view it,” said Lovely, who was a co-author of the study.

Consumers ultimately will pay for tariffs that are imposed on imported goods, said Darpan Seth, CEO of Nextuple, a software corporation providing order management systems for retailers whose clients include Dick’s Sporting Goods, Disney and Coach, in a previous interview with USA TODAY. 

“For consumers, tariffs are like another form of worth rise, just spelled differently,” Seth said. “They have the same result of rising prices.” 

Consumers and retailers have reacted to anticipated tariffs and potential worth increases on goods like electronics, washing machines and refrigerators. Seth previously told USA TODAY that sales figures for these categories went up on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Contributing: Paul Davidson and Betty Lin-Fisher, USA TODAY