Can Rachel Reeves use her defining apportionment to escape UK’s ‘doom loop’?
Can Rachel Reeves use her defining apportionment to escape UK’s ‘doom loop’?
“This is it. This is what it’s all for.” In four days Rachel Reeves will stand outside No 11 holding the red apportionment box up for hordes of press snappers. That instant really will be, as a prominent event figure suggested, a massive instant for Labour – and for the country.
On Wednesday, the recent government will reveal more about itself than ever before. We’ll recognize how much responsibility we’ll all pay, how much liquid assets the government will spend and borrow, and the mighty monetary markets will recognize in specific how the chancellor is changing the rules designed to prevent a community finance meltdown.
“Budgets are a instant when the government actually has control,” one minister says.
There have been deliberate warnings for months about how tight liquid assets is – how No 11 needs to squeeze the community purse to make ends meet.
But others in the Labour movement aspiration for much more than just a “Treasury apportionment” driven by balancing the books. They instead desire a “Labour apportionment” – to seize the instant and prioritise community services.
As one insider hopes, “if you’re going to have a Labour government, let’s have a Labour government, not a Treasury government”.
It’s a challenging equilibrium, and the government’s attempt to seed expectations may have confused some of the community, a elder MP tells me. “Random members of the community reading it all ponder, ‘Oh gosh, life is collapsing, the socialist government is taking all our money,’ or you read something else and ponder, ‘it’s all going to be OK’.”
You can read more about the plans we recognize about here, including Rachel Reeves’ large, planned announcement to transformation how the country’s enormous community debts are counted.
But what will it add up to? What will Labour do with its instant of control?
A large bazooka apportionment
The strapline of the apportionment will be “fixing the foundations to deliver transformation” – not exactly the snappiest slogan in history.
But “fixing the foundations” is quick becoming a very familiar mantra correct across Labour, heard in soundbites, on social media, and in speeches galore – the government’s asking for patience from the community to sort out some deep-rooted problems in the country.
And the scale of this apportionment is likely to be huge. There is no question it will include a major set of measures amounting to billions and billions of pounds of extra responsibility rises like the hike in National Insurance for employers we’ve confirmed today; billions and billions of pounds of extra borrowing.
A government source said: “It is a large apportionment because there is a hell of a lot to do to get finances back on firmer footing, and to make sure community services can keep going.”
But note the “to deliver transformation” in the apportionment strapline as an add on – a sign – that the chancellor is under pressure to spell out what the point of responsibility rises are, what the merits of squeezing some spending is.
If you put up with the pain, what do you get in profit?
That pressure is behind the chancellor’s selection to flex the spending rules she used to boast about being “ironclad”. She wants billions to spend on roads, rail, to invest, in the aspiration of getting the economy growing – and extra spending on the health service and also, likely, for schools.
We’ll listen more about that tomorrow with Education Secretary Bridget Philipson joining us on the display.
As well as a large apportionment in monetary terms, it’s a large instant in history too. The first apportionment of a government with a gravity-defying majority. The first delivered by a female chancellor. And the first Labour apportionment in 15 years.
A corrective apportionment?
Aside from the huge worth tag, there’s the purpose.
The narrative inside government is that this is a “corrective” instant – essentially, cleaning up the damage done to the community finances by the pandemic, the vigor shock, and what Labour would claim were damaging Tory decisions and “covering up” how impoverished things were in the run up to the summer’s General Election.
As you’d expect, Conservatives would debate that the economy had started to turn for the better before they lost – but the independent OBR has said the extent of the problems had been masked.
A “corrective” certainly sounds like something hurtful. Sources point to two previous Budgets after large moments of economic peril – the Norman Lamont apportionment of 1993 after the disaster of Black Wednesday and George Osborne’s 2010 emergency apportionment after the turmoil of the monetary crisis. Both of those Budgets were notable for responsibility rises. This one won’t be different.
Those “corrections”, along with any large cheques that are written for health, schools or housing, will form the basis of Labour’s narrative.
The communication they desire the community to listen is obvious: things went badly incorrect, and it’s not going to be straightforward or cheap to fix them.
Government sources even pitch this instant as a “last chance” after what they declare are years of neglecting community services and running the country’s debt up to sort things out.
Reeves will now it as a political selection, a conscious selection that contrasts to the Conservatives’ record.
“resource not decline… stability and an complete to chaos.” One of her allies told me the apportionment would be “political, political, political”, choosing every chance to highlight the differences in her way to the many Tory chancellors in her place before.
A political apportionment?
That will be Reeves’ argument – but how it lands with the event and community matters so much.
And there are nerves in some quarters of the Labour event, with some ministers very worried about how amount of liquid assets they will have to spend. One elder source says, “no profit to some form of austerity, that is the acid test – we all comprehend the inheritance, but there are different ways of raising money”.
As with any apportionment, as one MP says, “we all have a shopping list”, and every squeeze on spending will have an accompanying howl of: how could you?
Budgets can make recent problems just as they can solve them.
Skimping on the liquid assets for challenging-pressed local councils would factor alarm. Scrapping the £2 cap on bus fares would provoke outrage outside London. Raiding the research apportionment in the science department would factor upset. What about financing for the dental profession when the government is committed to 700,000 extra dental appointments?
Every selection has potential pitfalls.
A hazard of upset, outrage – and even industrial action. A note passed to the BBC from the Fire Brigades Union to Reeves is demanding a fair settlement for the Fire Service after years of pressure, dangling the possibility of industrial action if it doesn’t happen. There’s even a hazard of strikes among pharmacies over financing, and the Royal College of Nurses has rejected ministers’ pay offers so far.
That’s just a short pick of the very long list of dilemmas where money talks, and the chancellor’s been urged to listen.
‘Escape the doom loop’
Downing Street, both No 10 and 11, aspiration they can pull off a huge coup this week – to inform the community things will be challenging for a while, but convince them that a better country is on the way; that higher taxes will be well spent, community services will get up off their knees, the economy will develop and we’ll all have a stake in it.
There remain competing views about how to achieve that. Some are adamant that “it will be the Labour apportionment the whole country’s been waiting for… to escape the doom loop of high taxes, low growth and impoverished community services”.
But even inside the event there’s scepticism about whether they can make it happen – a terror that No 11’s drive to equilibrium the books, even with changed rules, will receive over, preventing a bolder and cheerier communication from ringing out at a huge instant.
Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer are fond of saying their number one priority is to develop the economy – and one source says it will not be “a Labour apportionment or a Treasury apportionment, but a Rachel Reeves apportionment”.
One elder figure fears that the “Treasury sees its number one mission as controlling community spending – not creating growth,” citing no difference between the Treasury under Jeremy Hunt and No 11 under Rachel Reeves.
A Labour source says that “if it is a Treasury apportionment, a technocrat one that focuses more on anything else on balancing the books, then it would be a let down”.
Another jokes the plans are “52% Labour, 48% Treasury”, as the event has just been on the side of managing to stick to its political instincts, not the traditional money-saving drive of No 11.
And what about the apportionment custom of a “rabbit out of the hat” – a enjoyable shock at the complete of the statement?
Not this period. I’m told a throng of Labour staffers is eagerly holding a sweepstake about what it could be – but a source suggests, in a bleak monetary circumstance, they stand to be sorely disappointed. “There won’t be any rabbit, it’d be like Watership Down for the impoverished little sod.”
Labour waited and worked a long period to get back into power. And Rachel Reeves has waited a long period for this instant, to provide a apportionment statement as chancellor in her aspiration job. The girl who saved her 20p holiday money, rather than spend it at the toy shop, now in deciding what to save and spend for us all.
But the beginning of her and Sir Keir Starmer’s narrative in government has not been the one they dreamt of.
This week is, according to a Labour source, “a golden chance to relaunch themselves”.
Where the equilibrium lands in Reeves’ large instant could hardly be more significant.
Everyone in government understands as this source says: “We absolutely recognize it is the defining instant for the event and our government, this is it.”
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