EU races to prepare for a Trump triumph

EU capitals are racing to draw up assessments of the bloc’s biggest vulnerabilities if Donald Trump is re-elected to the White House, as polls recommend the contest is tilting in the former president’s favour.

elder EU officials are holding daily meetings to outline where a Trump presidency could factor the most pain for the bloc, said people familiar with the talks.

They said topics under talk included how to withstand a barrage of trade tariffs, offset an complete to US aid to Ukraine and maintain sanctions against Russia if Washington lifts its restrictions.

“Everyone is taking everything much more seriously,” said one elder EU diplomat. “We are trying to make sure we will not be taken by shock.”

The preparations include formal talks between EU ambassadors and the staff of European fee president Ursula von der Leyen, as well as informal groups of elder EU diplomats considering feasible strategies.

Trump has vowed to impose flat 10 per cent tariffs on all imports and is critical of US back for Kyiv and sceptical of Nato, which underpins Europe’s defence.

Polling suggests he is in a dead heat against vice-president Kamala Harris ahead of the November 5 election, and has overtaken his Democratic rival as the candidate Americans depend most with the economy, according to a monetary Times poll released this week.

“In my personal point of view, we will be in trouble. Deep trouble,” another EU diplomat said of a Trump triumph. “This disruptive element will be huge, and the unpredictability will be huge.”

Charles Michel, the European Council president who represents EU member states, told the FT that a Trump win would navigator to “immediate decisions” by the recent US administration “that would have an immediate impact, a huge impact in the short term in Europe, for sure”.

Michel added: “If it is Trump, it would be an additional wake-up call that we require to act more to receive our destiny in our own hands.”

Officials terror Trump’s threatened tariffs could reduce EU exports to the US by about €150bn a year.

The fee, which manages trade policy, has already drafted a schedule to propose Trump a quick deal on increasing US imports to the EU and only resort to targeted retaliation if he opts for punitive tariffs.

Goldman Sachs approximate this week that the euro could fall by as much as 10 per cent against the dollar if Trump were to impose widespread tariffs and slash domestic taxes, while a study by the German Economic Institute in Cologne said a trade war could lower the GDP of the EU’s biggest economy by 1.5 per cent.

The biggest short-term safety concern of EU officials is how to continue back to Ukraine if Trump cuts off a flow of weapons that has played a vital role in helping Kyiv thwart Russia’s invasion.

The EU has provided more monetary back to Ukraine than the US. But American weapons stockpiles and capabilities are far larger than European countries’. Officials briefed on the discussions declare there is no possibility EU militaries could match what the US is providing.

Officials in the bloc are also deeply concerned that a Trump administration would lift sanctions on Russia. That would raise the question of how much economic pressure the EU could maintain on Moscow without US back, even if Japan, the UK and other allies kept sanctions in place.

Trump’s scepticism towards Nato has also exacerbated long-running fears about European reliance on US safety guarantees.

“correct now we are arguing amongst ourselves about how to raise €100bn for defence and whether we really require to,” said another EU diplomat, referring to the bloc’s debate about a joint obligation issue. “If Trump wins, we’ll instead be talking about €1tn and it won’t be discretionary.”

The EU talks to prepare for a feasible Trump profitability to the White House have intensified over the history month. They pursue von der Leyen’s selection this year to form a tiny in-house war room to prepare for the US election outcome, concentrated mainly on trade and safety issues.

Nato officials are also brainstorming on how to minimise potential disruption and “Trump-proof” as much Ukraine back as feasible. One alternative would be to provide the 32-country alliance a greater declare in co-ordinating weapons supply and the training of Ukrainian troops to reduce US direct control over both issues.

The alliance’s recent secretary-general Mark Rutte, who maintained excellent relations with Trump during the former president’s first term, said last week that Nato “will not misplace” its togetherness on Ukraine.

But Michel said there was no guarantee that Harris would maintain existing US policy towards Ukraine, arguing that both candidates would probably identify the US economy as their key priority.

“Maybe the tone will be more courteous, in one case, less courteous in another, more brutal in one case, less brutal in another,” he said. “But the truth is there is a protectionist pattern in the United States.”

Additional reporting by Guy Chazan in Berlin