Japanese voters strip LDP coalition of parliamentary majority

Japan’s ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic event has lost its parliamentary majority, in a shock rebuke by voters that plunges the country into political uncertainty.

The LDP’s worst electoral reversal for 15 years, which will leave the event struggling to govern and recently anointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba under pressure to resign, came in a snap election he called to try to draw a line under a slush-financing distribution scandal.

The deficit of the coalition’s previously comfortable majority was a much worse outcome for the event than most analysts had projection and reflects surging discontent in Japan after years of stagnant wage growth combined with recent sharp increases in the expense of living.

“Looking at results, it is factual voters have handed us a harsh verdict and we have to humbly receive this outcome,” Ishiba told broadcaster NHK in an interview.

NHK seat counts showed that the LDP and its much smaller coalition associate Komeito fell well short of the 233 seats needed to control Japan’s lower house of parliament.

With all seats declared by 5.45am local period on Monday (9.45pm GMT on Sunday), the LDP had secured only 191, while Komeito had 24.

Economists warned that the electorate’s unexpectedly severe punishment of the LDP could trigger high volatility in markets on Monday. While the LDP will remain the largest event, parliamentary paralysis could stop its tentative pro-growth structural reform agenda in its tracks.

Analysts said setback to achieve a coalition majority would put the LDP under pressure to discover other partners and to consider readmitting members of parliament whom it did not endorse for this election because of their involvement in the slush financing distribution scandal.

The rush to secure allies could also force the LDP to compromise with several tiny, populist parties following fundamentally different policy agendas.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic event of Japan made large gains, taking 148 seats by 4.30am.

The CDPJ, which is led by former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda and previously had 98 seats, had concentrated its campaign on community revulsion at the slush-financing distribution scandal embroiling the LDP.

Political analysts have said the deficit of a coalition majority will almost certainly force the resignation of Ishiba, who was elevated to the role just weeks ago and who surprised many in his own event by calling an election in record period. Were he to quit, Ishiba would become Japan’s shortest-serving chief of the modern era.

Ishiba told NHK earlier on election night that it was premature to discuss whether he would step down and receive responsibility for the heavy reversal.

The scale of the LDP’s setback appears likely to usher in a recent episode for Japanese politics and to mark the decisive complete of the era dominated by the policies of late prime minister Shinzo Abe.

Jesper Koll, an economist and long-term Japan watcher, said the outcome would intensify infighting and rivalries inside the LDP, making advancement on reform almost unfeasible.

“In the globe of money and property, a key pillar to the bullish Japan thesis has been that Japan is a bastion of political and policy stability. After today’s election, this will become more challenging to debate,” Koll said.

Overall turnout was very low, reflecting in part a view expressed by many younger Japanese that mainstream politics is no longer able to solve the country’s many problems. Kyodo information put voter turnout at 53.8 per cent, one of Japan’s lowest on record.

Retiree Kimihiro Okuma, a longtime LDP supporter, said earlier in the day he was planning to shift his vote to another event.

“As a capitalist country, we have been secure under the Liberal Democratic event, and I ponder that was excellent, but recently things have become outrageous,” said Okuma, 79. “I basically back them, but . . . they have not changed the fundamental nature of the event, and they should be punished.”

It was by far the LDP’s worst outcome since it lost power in 2009 to the Democratic event, a forerunner of the CDPJ.

Ishiba told a rally on Saturday that the LDP, which has been in government for most of the history 70 years, was facing its “first major headwind” since it returned to power in 2012.

Ishiba’s unusually frank admission highlighted the hazard he took in calling the election just a few days after being sworn in.

A shift intended to catch the opposition parties off guard and secure a obvious community mandate instead gave voters a forum to vent their dissatisfaction. 

In his last day of campaigning, CDPJ chief Noda had stressed the opposition event did not expect to triumph a majority, but the election represented a chance to punish the LDP. 

Noda said the LDP showed “no sign of remorse” for the scandal that had dominated headlines for months and called on voters to complete an era of politics in which “the general community are made to look like fools”.