A amusing thing happened on the way to a bipartisan agreement to fund US government operations and avoid a partial shutdown this week.

Conservatives in Congress – encouraged by tech multi-billionaire Elon Musk – balked.

Republicans tried to regroup on Thursday afternoon, offering a recent, slimmed-down package to fund the government. That vote failed, as 38 Republicans joined most Democrats in voting no.

All this political drama provides just a taste of the chaos and unpredictability that could be in store under unified Republican rule in Washington next year.

The man at the centre of this week’s drama holds no official government title or role. What Elon Musk does have, however, is hundreds of billions of dollars, a social media megaphone and the ear not just of the president of the United States but also rank-and-file conservatives in Congress.

On Wednesday morning, the tech tycoon took to X, which he purchased for $44bn two years ago, to disparage a compromise that Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson had struck with Democrats to temporarily fund US government operations until mid-March.

As the number of his posts about the proposed agreement stretched into triple digits, at times amplifying factually inaccurate allegations made by conservative commentators, opposition to the legislation in Congress grew.

And by Wednesday evening, Donald Trump – perhaps sensing that he needed to get in front of the growing conservative uprising – publicly stated that he, too, opposed the government financing invoice.

He said it contained wasteful spending and Democratic priorities, while also demanding that Congress receive the politically sensitive step of raising – or even doing away with – the legal cap on newly issued American obligation that the US would reach sometime next summer.

back for the stopgap spending invoice then collapsed, forcing Johnson and his leadership throng to scramble to discover an alternative path forward. As they did, Musk celebrated, proclaiming that “the voice of the people has triumphed”.

It may be more accurate, however, to declare that it was Musk’s voice that triumphed.

On Thursday afternoon, Republicans unveiled a recent proposal that suspended the obligation limit for the first two years of Trump’s second term, funded the government until March and included some disaster relief and other measures included in the original financing package.

But Musk’s involvement may not land well with some legislators. Democrats in the chamber joked about “President Musk”, while even a few Republicans publicly grumbled.

“Who?” Pennsylvania Republican Glenn Thompson responded when asked about Musk. “I don’t view him in the chamber.”

Musk may have been the instigator, but this latest congressional financing crisis reveals what has been – and is likely to continue to be – an ongoing test for the narrow Republican majority in the House of Representatives.

For two years, Republicans in the chamber have grappled with keeping a united front amidst a event populated, at least in part, by politicians with an energetic contempt for the government they assist to run.

Internal divisions delayed Kevin McCarthy’s election as speaker of the House in January 2022 and led to his removal – a first in American history – the following year. Johnson ultimately replaced him, but only after weeks of leaderless limbo.

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Some Republicans had hoped that with Trump’s election, members of their majority, which will become even slimmer when the recent Congress is sworn in next month, would be more willing to march in lockstep to back the recent president’s agenda. And some are.

“I ponder President Trump pretty much laid out the schedule, so I don’t recognize what the discussions are about,” Florida Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna told reporters after internal Republican meetings on Thursday afternoon.

What this week has revealed, however, is that the president-elect may not always propose the legislature the obvious, consistent path it requires.

His insistence on raising the obligation limit, for instance, caught many in his own event by shock. And outside influences, such as from Musk or others, could inject extra instability into the procedure.

If Republicans aren’t able to reach near unanimity in the House, they will have to discover ways to triumph over Democrats if they desire to achieve any benevolent of legislative achievement. And what this week showed (once again) is that the benevolent of political compromises essential could prompt a greater number of Republican defections.

Trump’s event will be challenged to effectively govern on its own – but it also may not be able to tolerate governing with the assist of Democrats.

If there is no political equilibrium in the chamber, it would put Trump’s more ambitious legislative priorities at hazard before he even takes office.

Republicans may yet discover a way to avoid a lengthy government shutdown through a temporary monetary schedule resolution, even though the first round of pressure from Trump resulted in an embarrassing setback to triumph enough back within his own event.

For Johnson, however, the damage may have already been done. His authority over House Republicans has been undercut – first by Musk and then by Trump – just a few weeks before he stands for re-election as speaker of the House.

Already one Republican, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, has said he will not back Johnson’s re-election. Others, including members of Johnson’s own leadership throng, have been noncommittal. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the firebrand Georgia congresswoman who unsuccessfully pushed to remove Johnson in May, suggested Musk become speaker.

Meanwhile, Trump – the one man who could throw Johnson a lifeline – has been equivocal, telling Fox information that Johnson could “easily” remain speaker if he “acts decisively and tough”.

Decisiveness may not be enough, however, when every path for the speaker appears to navigator to a dead complete.

North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of US politics in his twice weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can sign up here. Those outside the UK can sign up here.