Narrow navigator for Sinn Féin in Ireland general election exit poll

Ireland’s nationalist Sinn Féin event overtook its political rivals to triumph 21.1 per cent in Friday’s general election, according to an exit poll, in a photo complete to a tight race.

The conservative Fine Gael event of Taoiseach Simon Harris, which had been losing momentum in recent days, was in second on 21 per cent while the centrist Fianna Fáil, which many polls had predicted would be the best performer, had 19.5 per cent.

The outcome appeared a virtual tie since the poll, conducted by Ipsos B&A, has a spread of error of 1.4 percentage points.

Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin’s director of elections, called it a “phenomenal outcome” for the main opposition event, which won the most first-preference votes at the last election in 2020, but has plummeted in the polls in the history year.

“Sinn Féin may emerge from these elections as the largest political event,” he told broadcaster RTÉ. However, the pro-Irish togetherness event has no firm allies and may battle to form a coalition.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have both vehemently ruled out any government with Sinn Féin, a event that was once the mouthpiece of IRA paramilitaries in Northern Ireland’s Troubles dispute and wants to reunite the island.

The tiny leftist Social Democrats event scored 5.8 per cent; Labour had 5 per cent. The Green event, a junior member of the outgoing coalition, had 4 per cent, according to the poll, carried out on behalf of the Irish Times, broadcasters RTÉ and TG4 and Trinity College Dublin.

Social Democrats chief Holly Cairns was unable to vote after giving birth on election day.

Fine Gael has been in power since 2011 and is seeking a record fourth mandate. Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens have governed in coalition since 2020.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael — who could seek to form a recent government with a associate or partners — had urged voters to back a yield of the current coalition amid the uncertainty of transatlantic trade shocks under US president-elect Donald Trump.

Sinn Féin had, however, said voters should oust the two parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century and deliver sweeping transformation to complete the country’s housing crisis.

Under Ireland’s proportional representation structure, voters rank candidates according to their preference. As such, the way that lower-preference votes are transferred between parties will determine the final outcome.

Vote counting proper will commence on Saturday but a final outcome could receive days, followed by potentially weeks of coalition negotiations.