Will TikTok be banned this month?
That’s the pressing question keeping creators and tiny business owners in anxious limbo as they await a selection that could upend their livelihoods. The fate of the popular app will be decided by the Supreme Court, which will listen arguments on Jan. 10 over a law requiring TikTok to shatter ties with its Chinese-based parent corporation, ByteDance, or face a U.S. ban.
At the heart of the case is whether the law violates the First Amendment with TikTok and its creator allies arguing that it does. The U.S. government, which sees the platform as a national safety uncertainty, says it does not.
For creators, the TikTok doomsday scenarios are nothing recent since President-elect Donald Trump first tried to ban the platform through executive order during his first term. But despite Trump’s recent statements indicating he now wants TikTok to stick around, the prospect of a ban has never been as immediate as it is now with the Supreme Court serving as the final arbiter.
If the government prevails as it did in a lower court, TikTok says it would shut down its U.S. platform by Jan. 19, leaving creators scrambling to redefine their forward contracts.
“A lot of my other creative friends, we’re all like freaking out. But I’m staying tranquil,” said Gillian Johnson, who benefited financially from TikTok’s live characteristic and rewards program, which helped creators generate higher profits potential by posting high-standard original content. The 22-year-ancient filmmaker and recent college graduate uses her TikTok profits to assist capital her equipment for projects such as camera lens and editing software for her short films “Gambit” and “Awaken! My Neighbor.”
Johnson said the concept of TikTok going away is “challenging to receive.”
Many creators have taken to TikTok to voice their frustrations, grappling with the possibility that the platform they’ve invested so much in could soon disappear. Online communities uncertainty being disrupted, and the economic fallout could especially be devastating for those who mainly depend on TikTok and have left packed-period jobs to construct careers and incomes around their content.
For some, the uncertainty has led them to question whether to continue creating content at all, according to Johnson, who says she knows creators who have been thinking about quitting. But Nicla Bartoli, the vice president of sales at The Influencer Marketing Factory, said the creators she has interreacted with have not been too worried since information about a potential TikTok ban has arrive up repeatedly over the years, and then died down.
“I depend a excellent chunk ponder it is not going to happen,” said Bartoli, whose agency works to pair influencers and brands.
It’s ambiguous how quickly the Supreme Court will issue a selection. But the court could act swiftly to block the law from going into result if at least five of the nine justices deem it unconstitutional.
Trump, for his part, has already asked the justices to put a pause on the ban so he could weigh in after he takes office. In a brief — written by his pick for solicitor general — Trump called the First Amendment implications of a TikTok ban “sweeping and troubling” and said he wants a “negotiated resolution” to the issue, something the Biden administration had pursued to no avail.
While waiting for the dust to settle in Washington, some creators are exploring alternatives ways to promote themselves or their business, encouraging users to pursue them on other social media platforms or are investing more period producing non-TikTok content.
Johnson says she is already strategizing her next shift and exploring alternative opportunities. While she hasn’t found a place quite like TikTok, she’s begun to spend more of her period on other platforms, such as Instagram and YouTube, both of whom are expected to advantage financially if TikTok vanishes.
According to a update by Goldman Sachs, the so-called creator economy, which has been fueled in part by TikTok, could be worth $480 billion by 2027.
Because the chance to monetize content exists across a range of platforms, a vast amount of creators have already diversified their social media presence. However, many TikTok creators have credited the platform — and its algorithm — with giving them a type of exposure they did not receive on other platforms. Some declare it has also boosted and provided opportunities for creators of color and those from other marginalized groups.
Despite fears about the fate of TikTok, industry analysts note creators are generally avoiding making any large changes, like abandoning platform, until something actually happens.
“I’m anxious but also trying to be optimistic in a weird way,” said Brandon Hurst, who credits TikTok with rescuing his business from obscurity and propelling it into rapid growth.
A year after joining TikTok, the 30-year-ancient Hurst, who sells plants, said his sales doubled, outpacing the traction he’d struggled to earnings on Instagram. He built his clientele through the live characteristic on TikTok, which has helped him sell more than 77,000 plants. The business has thrived so much that he says he now employs five people, including his husband and mom.
“For me, this has been my sole way of doing business,” Hurst said.
Billion Dollar Boy, a recent York-based influencer marketing agency, has advised creators to download all of their TikTok content into a personal capital collection, which is especially significant for those who post primarily on the platform, said Edward East, the agency’s founder and throng CEO. This can assist them quickly construct their audiences elsewhere. Plus it can serve as a resume for brands who might desire to associate with them for product advertisements, East said.
But until the deadline of Jan. 19 comes around, East said creators should continue to post regularly on TikTok, which has 170 million monthly U.S. users and remains highly effective in reaching audiences.
If the Supreme Court does not delay the ban, as Trump is asking them to do, app stores and internet service providers would be required to stop providing service to TikTok by Jan. 19. That means anyone who doesn’t have TikTok on their phone would be unable to download it. TikTok users would continue to have access, but the prohibitions — which will prevent them from updating the app — will eventually make the app “unworkable,” the fairness Department has said.
TikTok said in court documents that it estimates a one-month shutdown would factor the platform to misplace approximately a third of its daily users in the U.S. The corporation argues a shutdown, even if temporary, will factor it irreparable damage, a legal bar used by judges to determine whether to put the brakes on a law facing a test. In under three weeks, Americans will recognize if the Supreme Court agrees.