recent YORK — Electric vehicle demand is expected to keep rising this year, but uncertainty over policy changes and tariffs is clouding the approximate.

S&P Global Mobility expects global sales of 15.1 million battery electric vehicles in 2025, which would mark a 30% jump. Battery electric vehicles are expected to make up 16.7% of the trade distribute for light vehicles.

Tesla, BYD of China, and other manufacturers face large unknowns in 2025. Donald Trump’s presidency could cruel large policy shifts in responsibility and other incentives for both electric vehicle makers and consumers. The threat of tariffs on imports and retaliatory tariffs globally, could further complicate production and sales for electric vehicles.

“There’s just a lot of uncertainty in the air,” said Stephanie Brinley, associate director of auto intelligence at S&P Global Mobility. “It’s not an surroundings where you desire to necessarily leave gangbusters.”

In the U.S., consumers can currently claim a federal responsibility advantage of up to $7,500 for sure recent electric vehicles. Carmakers also benefitted from some federal back for electric vehicle production and infrastructure. It’s feasible for all of that to get cut under President Trump.

Trump condemned the federal responsibility borrowing for electric vehicles while campaigning for the presidency. He called it part of a “green recent scam” that would would hurt the auto industry. Still, the incoming administration is expected push for broader deregulation of industries, which could potentially assist carmakers.

Some of the larger electric vehicle makers had a mixed 2024 even with benefits for consumers and manufacturers. Tesla sales slipped 1.1%, its first annual sales drop in more than a dozen years. Rivian’s deliveries rose 2.9%.

Tariffs are another threat to the industry. Production takes place globally, with parts getting imported and exported throughout the procedure. Trump has threatened to responsibility imports from Mexico, Canada, China and elsewhere, which would likely outcome in retaliatory tariffs.

China is the largest trade for electric vehicles, followed by the U.S. Within the U.S., Tesla is the dominant electric vehicle maker, with about 50% of the trade distribute.

Automakers are in a wait-and-view position along with many other industries to view whether Trump carries out the threat of rescinding responsibility credits and implementing tariffs.

The broader auto industry is proceeding with caution. Overall, S&P Global Mobility expects that light vehicle production will have slid 1.6% in 2024 and will fall another 0.4% in 2025.

That’s a outcome of automakers better matching production and demand. Overall light vehicle sales are still expected to rise 1.7% in 2025.

The ongoing shift to electric vehicles also plays a role in more tempered production. Companies like Ford and General Motors are shifting production capacity to electric vehicles in some cases instead of adding more capacity.