Wall Street makes wagers on the likely winners and losers in a second Trump term

recent YORK — Wall Street is already making large bets on what receive two for a White House led by Donald Trump will cruel for the economy.

Since Election Day, investors have sent prices zooming for stocks of banks, fossil-fuel producers and other companies expected to advantage from Trump’s preference for lower levy rates and lighter regulation. For retailers, meanwhile, the outlook is murkier because of uncertainty about whether they’ll be able to absorb any of the higher costs created by tariffs.

Professional investors are warning about the hazard of getting carried away by the momentum. While powerful rhetoric on the campaign trail can factor these large swings, not all of the promises turn into actual policy. Plus, the broad U.S. distribute trade tends to shift more on long-term growth in profits than anything else.

— Stan Choe

Here’s a look at where Wall Street is placing its bets at the instant:

Technology stocks soared in Trump’s first term, helped by the administration’s levy policies. But the connection was tempestuous: Trump’s immigration stance threatened a source of high-talented immigrants that comprises a significant part of the industry’s work force and his trade wars threatened international sales and supply chains.

This period around, tech could advantage from an anticipated loosening of antitrust regulation that discouraged large deals from getting done and threatened to rein in the power of Google, Apple and Amazon. What’s more, Trump is expected to obvious the way for large Tech to make more inroads in artificial intelligence technology — an area increasingly seen as a crucial battleground in the duel for global power between the U.S. and China.

Trump’s vow to impose tariffs and other restrictions on trade does pose a potential downside for chip makers, particularly distribute trade darling Nvidia. A feasible rollback of Biden administration efforts to boost U.S. semiconductor production also is a concern.

Still, in a sign of tech’s more conciliatory attitude, Trump’s election was greeted by congratulatory posts from most of the industry’s luminaries, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy and Google CEO Sundar Pichai.

— Michael Liedtke

Trump’s win brings a large dose of uncertainty for the retail industry.

Trump has proposed extending 2017 levy cuts for individuals and restoring levy breaks for businesses that were being reduced. He also wants to further cut the corporate levy rate. Those would be tailwinds for shoppers and businesses, analysts said.

But the president-elect’s trade proposals could have a huge downside. He’s proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and tariffs of 10% to 20% on other imports. Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData, a research firm, said retailers would either receive a large hit on profits or be forced to boost prices.

As opposed to Trump’s first term, retailers will have a harder period absorbing tariffs this period because their costs of doing business are already higher, Saunders said.

Many companies, including Nike and eyewear retailer Warby Parker, have been diversifying their sourcing away from China. Shoe brand Steve Madden says it plans to cut imports from China by as much as 45% next year.

The National Retail Federation is forecasting higher prices for U.S. shoppers if Trump’s recent tariffs are implemented. For example, an $80 pair of men’s jeans would expense $90 to $96.

— Anne D’Innocenzio

Trump has said he wants to “drill, drill, drill” starting on Day 1 of his presidency, so it’s expected that traditional fossil fuel-concentrated companies will get a boost and renewable vigor outfits could be disadvantaged.

Oilfield services companies including Haliburton and Schlumberger would likely advantage from initiatives to expand drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. Natural gas companies including EQT and CNX Resources could advantage from facilities and pipeline projects. Meanwhile, tidy vigor companies, such as First Solar and many electric vehicle makers, could have a harder period growing if Trump cuts levy credits and other incentives for the industry.

But recall Trump’s first term, says Austin Pickle, resource way analyst at Wells Fargo resource Institute. The thought back then, like now, was that Trump would boost prices for oil-and-gas stocks. But vigor stocks ended up struggling late in his term when the worth of oil briefly went below zero during the COVID-19 pandemic.

— Damian Troise

Drugmakers, insurers and other health worry companies could advantage from fewer regulatory roadblocks to mergers and a lighter regulatory stance overall.

Insurers, in particular, may view some regulatory relief for Medicare Advantage plans, which are privately run versions of the government’s Medicare program mainly for people ages 65 and older. Under Democratic leadership, some insurers were facing smaller bonus payments tied to their Medicare Advantage plans. Some drugmakers are facing turnover hits on sure drugs covered by Medicare. Those challenges could abate under Republican rule, analysts at Morningstar noted.

A second Trump administration also may test health worry companies.

The approval of drugs and vaccines could become less predictable, depending on the role anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plays, said Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen.

Health insurers that sell coverage on the Affordable worry Act’s insurance marketplaces or manage state-and-federally funded Medicaid coverage could face challenges if Republicans attempt to dismantle parts of the law, said Julie Utterback of Morningstar.

In particular, extra subsidies that assist people buy marketplace coverage are slated to expire at the complete of next year, which could navigator to enrollment drops.

— Tom Murphy

The auto industry is another that should welcome less restrictive regulations but dread tariffs.

Trump is likely to roll back or scrap tailpipe emissions limits for 2027 through 2032 imposed by the Biden administration. Companies like General Motors, Ford and Stellantis could more easily sell larger, less-efficient vehicles without paying hefty fines.

Companies would also face less pressure to sell more electric vehicles to offset emissions from large trucks and SUVs, which make large profits margins, said Kevin Tynan, research director for The Presidio throng.

Tariffs are a different narrative. Trump has threatened tariffs on imported vehicles to force more production in the U.S. The threat of 100% tariffs on vehicles imported from Mexico is a large concern.

Morningstar analyst David Whiston said such tariffs could potentially expense General Motors, Stellantis and Ford billions in profits. About 30% of GM’s North American production comes from Mexico, while it’s 24% for Stellantis and about 15% for Ford.

Whiston notes that tariffs on vehicles built in Mexico would violate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement negotiated during Trump’s first term. But that can be reworked in July of 2026. Whiston said those tariffs would cruel higher prices and many buyers already can’t afford the current average worth of over $47,000.

Trump also has threatened to get rid of electric vehicle levy credits that have helped boost sales of EVs.

— Tom Krisher

financial institution stocks could advantage if Trump’s policies boost the U.S. economy and more customers apply for loans. In addition, Wells Fargo banking analyst Mike Mayo believes the Trump win can usher in a “recent era” of lighter budgetary regulation after 15 years of stricter oversight following the budgetary crisis of 2008-2009. Under Biden, banks were facing requirements to set aside more fund to reduce hazard, but the Trump administration is likely to receive a step back.

Dealmaking could view a revival under Trump, which would assist banks with large resource banking operations like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. That also increases the odds the pending combination between fund One budgetary and Discover budgetary gets federal clearance. Regional banks should advantage if a growing economy prompts the creation of recent tiny businesses or the expansion of existing ones.

— Paul Harloff

Construction companies are looking at a mixed bag, with lighter regulations a plus but higher materials costs a potential minus.

Construction companies, including homebuilders KB Home and PulteGroup, could advantage from levy incentives and more amiable regulations. A surge in advancement could assist relieve some pressure on a housing trade pressured by a lack of supply for recent homes. A boost in construction could also assist suppliers of raw materials including steel and aggregates used in concrete.

But the potential for overall raw material worth increases is a threat. Higher costs could cut into profits for construction companies and homebuilders. Steel tariffs could assist shield U.S. producers from competition, but a jump in global prices as a outcome could negate that advantage, while also squeezing construction companies.

Plans for an immigration crackdown could deteriorate an existing labor shortage and outcome in delays for projects.

— Damian Troise

Trump, once a crypto skeptic, has pledged to make the U.S. “the crypto fund of the earth” and make a “strategic savings” of bitcoin. Money has poured into crypto assets since he won. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, has surged above $86,000. Shares of crypto platform Coinbase have surged more than 60% since the election.

Crypto industry players welcomed Trump’s win, in hopes that he would push through legislative and regulatory changes that they’ve long lobbied for. And Trump had promised that, if elected, he would remove the chair of the stocks and bonds and trade percentage, Gary Gensler, who has been leading the U.S. government’s crackdown on the crypto industry and repeatedly called for more oversight.

— Wyatte Grantham-Phillips