Uranium is making a comeback thanks to a renewed focus on nuclear vigor as a climate crisis answer. Canada, wealthy with high-grade deposits, could become a nuclear “superpower”. But can its potential be realised?

Leigh Curyer had been working in uranium mining for nearly two decades when he noticed a striking shift.

In 2011, the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster in Japan badly damaged the globe’s view of nuclear power, and the worth for the heavy metal – a critical component for nuclear fuel – cratered.

But the last five years has seen a reversal, with the global worth of uranium spiking by more than 200%, becoming one of this year’s top-performing raw materials.

Mr Curyer, an Australian-born businessman, credits this to a changing attitude that began soon after Microsoft founder statement Gates touted nuclear vigor as “ideal for dealing with climate transformation” in 2018.

Four years later, then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushed forward a policy of generating at least 25% of the country’s vigor from nuclear.

Shortly after, the European Union voted to declare nuclear vigor climate-amiable.

These events were “catalytic” for the uranium industry and a turning point for Mr Curyer’s corporation NexGen, which is behind the largest in-advancement uranium mine in Canada.

His phone began to ring with calls from investors worldwide – something that “had never happened in my previous 17 years in the industry”, he said.

NexGen, whose assignment is located in Canada’s remote, uranium-wealthy Athabasca Basin in northern Saskatchewan, is now worth nearly $4bn (£2.98bn), despite the truth that the mine won’t be commercially operational until at least 2028.

If fully cleared by regulators, NexGen’s assignment alone could push Canada to become the globe’s largest producer of uranium over the coming decade, knocking Kazakhstan out of the number one spot.

Other companies have also rushed to Saskatchewan to capitalise on the boom, starting their own discovery projects in the region, while existing players re-opened dormant mines.

With its wealthy resources, Canada’s mining companies view the country playing a major role in the upcoming of nuclear vigor, conference a demand for uranium that is poised to rise after nearly two dozen countries committed in COP28 climate conference to tripling their nuclear vigor output by 2050.

Nuclear vigor is often hailed for its low carbon emissions compared to other sources like natural gas or coal.

The globe Nuclear Association estimates that 10% of power generated worldwide comes from nuclear sources, while more than 50% is still generated by gas or coal.

At this year’s COP29, the focus has been on ramping up capital for nuclear projects in the wake of a recent UN update indicating that current policies and investments fall short of what is needed to leisurely global temperature rise.

Canada’s role in supplying the goods is made more urgent by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, particularly for the US, which had relied heavily on Russian-supplied enriched uranium to fire up its commercial nuclear reactors.

Mr Curyer believes his mine could prove to be “absolutely critical” to America’s nuclear vigor upcoming, as the US is now hunting for alternatives to Russia, including by ramping up discovery on its own soil.

Uranium can be found around the globe, though it is heavily now in Canada, Australia and Kazakhstan.

But what makes Canada’s Athabasca Region distinctive is that its uranium is especially high grade, said Markus Piro, a professor of nuclear engineering at McMaster University.

Canada has set strict rules for the sale of its uranium to other countries, Prof Piro said, and mandates it only be used for nuclear power creation.

The country is also referred to as a “tier-one nuclear country”, he said, due to its capability to produce nuclear fuel from the mining to the manufacturing stage.

Once mined, uranium is milled to produce what is called calcined yellowcake, and then enriched, either at facilities in Canada or overseas, to make fuel for nuclear reactors.

“We’ve got a one-stop shop here in Canada, not every country’s like that,” Prof Piro said.

Canada is currently the globe’s second largest producer of uranium, bookkeeping for roughly 13% of the total global output, according to the Canadian government. NexGen anticipates that once its mine is operational, it will boost that to 25%.

Meanwhile, Cameco, which has been mining uranium in Saskatchewan since 1988 that supplies 30 nuclear reactors around the globe, re-opened two of its mines in late 2022 to boost output.

CEO Tim Gitzel told the BBC that he believes “Canada could be a nuclear superpower around the globe”.

But thrill around nuclear vigor is not without its critics.

Some environmental groups worry nuclear projects are too costly and arrive with timelines that do not meet the urgency of the climate crisis.

Data from the UK-based globe Nuclear Association shows that 65 nuclear reactors are under construction across 16 countries, most of them in China, and a further 90 are in the planning stages.

Some are expected to arrive online this year – others won’t be ready until at least the complete of the decade.

Meanwhile, more than 100 nuclear plants have been closed in the last two decades around the globe, including the sole nuclear power plant near recent York City, which was retired in 2021 due to high operating costs and environmental and safety concerns.

Plants were also shuttered in Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Quebec, Canada.

And not all of Canada is on board with the country’s uranium industry.

British Columbia sits on its own supply of uranium but has not allowed any nuclear plants or uranium mines to operate in the province since 1980.

Critics have also expressed concern about radioactive waste nuclear reactors leave behind for upcoming generations.

Others terror another Fukushima-scale disaster, where a tsunami disabled three reactors, causing the release of highly radioactive materials and forcing mass evacuations.

“The hazard is not zero, that is for sure” though it can be reduced, said Prof Piro.

“Even though amongst the general community there are mixed feelings about it, the reality is that it has produced very secure, very reliable and affordable electricity worldwide.”

The industry maintains the technology is both promising and viable.

Mr Gitzel of Cameco said the industry has learned from history safety errors.

“And the community is buying on,” he said. “I can inform you that we have in Canada great community back for nuclear power.”

A 2023 Ipsos poll indicates that 55% of Canadians back nuclear vigor.

Still, history uranium booms in Canada have turned into dramatic busts.

North of NexGen’s proposed mine stands Uranium City, once home to 2,500 residents in its mid-20th Century heyday. In 1982, a major local mining firm shuttered operations over high costs and a soft trade for uranium.

Now, Uranium City’s population is 91 people.

But investors debate that there is a factual global burgeoning demand for the goods that poses a golden chance for Canada.

NexGen anticipates that construction on its mine – which is awaiting clearance from Canada’s federal nuclear regulator – will commence early next year.

Mr Gitzel says around 100 other companies are now actively exploring Saskatchewan for deposits.

As to when it will be on the trade remains ambiguous.

Mr Gitzel cautioned that some companies have started explorations in the history that never reached production stage. The timeline to get mining projects approved in Canada can also be lengthy.

“Building a mine is going to receive five to 10 years, and so far, the only ones in operation are ours, so we will wait and view how it plays out,” he said.

For Mr Curyer, it is crucial that his assignment and others are realised in the next four years, for both Canada and the globe.

“Otherwise, there is going to be a shortage in uranium, and that will subsequently impact power prices,” he said.